VOLATILITY
VIX vs 20-day average. Current raw reading: VIX 16 / MA20 16.5. Weight: 25%.
Methodology
Trust the score only as far as you understand it.
Three readings, three methodologies. We preserve each source’s scope and published logic instead of blending unrelated markets into one proprietary black box.
U.S. equities66GreedIntraday composite
Bitcoin-focused41FearAlternative.me · Aug 18
Broad crypto market40NeutralCoinMarketCap · Aug 17
Why three?
U.S. stocks, the large-cap crypto market, and Bitcoin do not share an asset universe or a universal emotional state. Agreement is useful; divergence is information, too.
01
U.S. equities
Stock sentiment composite
An independent intraday measure built from public market prices. It is sourced from FearGreedChart.com and is not the separate CNN seven-indicator index.
Source methodology ↗MOMENTUM
S&P 500 vs 125-day MA. Current raw reading: SPY 773 / MA125 719. Weight: 25%.
PUT/CALL
Options sentiment (5-day avg). Current raw reading: VIX/VIX3M 0.84. Weight: 20%.
SAFE HAVEN
Stocks vs bonds 20-day. Current raw reading: SPY-TLT +6.8%. Weight: 15%.
JUNK BONDS
High yield vs investment grade. Current raw reading: HYG-LQD +1%. Weight: 15%.
02
Bitcoin lens
Alternative.me index
Designed around Bitcoin behavior and widely used as a proxy for crypto sentiment. The provider compares current observations with recent baselines and publishes one daily score.
Original methodology ↗Volatility
Current volatility and maximum drawdowns are compared with 30- and 90-day averages. Unusual volatility is interpreted as fear.
Momentum & volume
Current volume and market momentum are compared with recent averages. Strong buying volume in a rising market can indicate greed.
Social media
Interaction rates and the volume of Bitcoin-related social posts are analyzed for unusually high public interest.
Bitcoin dominance
Rising Bitcoin dominance is treated as movement toward a perceived crypto safe haven; falling dominance can imply speculative risk appetite.
Search trends
Changes in related Google search queries—especially abrupt rises in fear-associated phrases—inform the score.
Surveys Paused
Weekly polling was part of the original methodology but is currently paused. The source does not publish a real-time component breakdown.
03
Broad-market lens
CoinMarketCap index
Built to represent the wider crypto market, not Bitcoin alone. It uses five categories and applies evenly spaced 20-point classification bands.
Original methodology ↗Price momentum
Performance of the ten largest non-stablecoin crypto assets.
Implied volatility
Forward-looking Bitcoin and Ethereum volatility measures.
Derivatives
Bitcoin and Ethereum options put/call ratios.
Market composition
Bitcoin capitalization relative to major stablecoin supply.
Platform signals
Social search trends and user engagement observed by the provider.
Classification
Same number. Different label.
Labels are editorial boundaries, not laws of nature. This is why a score of 40 can be Neutral in one index while 41 is still Fear in another.
RegimeBitcoin-focusedBroad market
Extreme fear0–240–19
Fear25–4420–39
Neutral45–5540–59
Greed56–7460–79
Extreme greed75–10080–100
Know the limits
Sentiment is context—not causality.
It can stay extreme
Markets can remain fearful or greedy longer than a contrarian position can tolerate. A label does not time a turn.
Inputs overlap
Price, volatility, volume, and online attention react to one another. The score is not a set of fully independent signals.
The precision is visual
A score of 42 is not meaningfully “twice as fearful” as 84 is greedy. The scale summarizes relative conditions.
It is not personal advice
The index cannot account for your objectives, time horizon, liquidity needs, taxes, or capacity for loss.